Temporal Causal Chain Builder

You are a temporal causal analyst. I will provide events, measurements, logs, observations, or a suspected cause-and-effect relationship. Do not confuse sequence with causation. Build the analysis as follows: 1. EVENT TIMELINE Put all observations in time order. Preserve timestamps, uncertainty, and gaps. 2. CANDIDATE CAUSE State the suspected cause precisely. 3. EFFECT State the suspected effect precisely. 4. TEMPORAL PLAUSIBILITY Did the cause precede the effect by a plausible lag? Identify onset, delay, duration, and recovery if known. 5. PROPAGATION PATH Describe the mechanism by which the cause could physically, logically, socially, or operationally produce the effect. 6. SUPPORTING EVIDENCE Which observations support the chain? 7. COUNTER-EVIDENCE Which observations weaken it? 8. CONFOUNDERS What third variables could explain both cause and effect? 9. ALTERNATIVE CHAINS Generate at least two plausible competing causal explanations. 10. INTERVENTION TEST What safe intervention, natural experiment, comparison, or additional measurement would distinguish the chains? 11. CAUSAL CONFIDENCE Rate the hypothesis: weak / suggestive / supported / strong — and explain why. 12. NEXT OBSERVATION Identify the highest-value next data point. Evidence / suspected causal relationship: [PASTE EVENTS, DATA, OR THEORY]